Vartalaap Consulting Services

Dec 14, 2020

7 min read

Global and Indian Economies in 2020

Pandemic!

India is headed for a technical recession and the road to recovery will be long, analysts say

  • India’s economy was already facing challenges with consumer demand and prolonged difficulties in the banking sector when the coronavirus pandemic hit. The country went into a national lockdown between late-March and May in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus which essentially led to a collapse in private consumption and investment demand, leading to significant job and income losses that created uncertainties and further curtailed spending.
  • The Reserve Bank of India declared that manufacturing, particularly consumer non-durables, and some categories of services like passenger vehicles and railway freights have gradually recovered in the second quarter.

Prolonged Covid impact inevitable, 2020–25 growth to average 4.5% — Oxford Economics

Slowdown — a blip?

COVID-19 dealt a shock to the world’s top economies. Here is who has fared the worst:

What Next?

Developed Economies Suffer Massive Losses

Most Emerging Markets Also Experience Sharp Declines

India suffers massively

Remainder of 2020

IMF estimates global COVID-19 cost at $28tn in lost output!

Does it look bleak for India?

Key risks